Netflix is projected to approach 400 million global subscribers by 2031, maintaining its position as the world’s leading subscription streaming service despite increasing consolidation across the media and entertainment industry, according to new research from Omdia.
The forecast, presented by Omdia at NEM Dubrovnik 2026, highlights how scale, profitability and audience reach are becoming the defining factors in the next phase of the streaming wars. While mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships continue to reshape the competitive landscape, Netflix appears well-positioned to retain its market leadership over the next five years.
Netflix’s Global Scale Continues to Set It Apart
According to Omdia, Netflix’s subscriber base is expected to reach nearly 400 million worldwide by the end of 2031. Even more significantly, the research firm predicts the platform’s monthly audience will surpass one billion viewers as early as 2027, underlining Netflix’s unparalleled global reach.
The forecast suggests that while competitors continue to invest heavily in content and international expansion, replicating Netflix’s scale remains a significant challenge.
“The streaming market is entering a new phase in which scale and sustainability are becoming increasingly important,” said Maria Rua Aguete, Head of Media & Entertainment at Omdia. “Consolidation is likely to strengthen a number of competitors, but Netflix continues to benefit from a level of global reach and subscriber scale that remains difficult to replicate.”
Netflix’s continued growth comes as the company expands its advertising business, strengthens local-language production strategies and increases its investment in live programming and sports-adjacent content.
Consolidation Could Reshape the Competitive Landscape
While Netflix remains the clear market leader, Omdia believes consolidation among major media companies could significantly alter the streaming hierarchy.
One of the most notable scenarios explored in the report is a potential combination of HBO Max and Paramount+. According to Omdia’s projections, a merged streaming service could reach approximately 175 million subscribers globally by 2031, making it one of the five largest streaming platforms in the world.
The research also points to strong audience overlap between the two services. Around 40% of Paramount+ subscribers already subscribe to HBO Max, while 26% of HBO Max subscribers also pay for Paramount+, creating opportunities for bundling, cross-promotion and improved customer retention.
For traditional media companies facing profitability pressures, consolidation is increasingly being viewed as a pathway to achieving the scale necessary to compete with streaming giants.
YouTube Emerges as a Different Kind of Competitor
Omdia’s analysis also emphasizes that competition in the video ecosystem extends far beyond subscription streaming platforms.
YouTube is forecast to reach 2.7 billion monthly active users in 2026, giving it a level of audience scale unmatched by any individual streamer. As connected TV viewing continues to rise globally, YouTube is increasingly competing for television viewing time alongside premium streaming services.
“Competition is no longer limited to streamer versus streamer,” Rua Aguete noted. “Netflix remains the dominant subscription streaming platform, while YouTube is becoming an influential force in television as it continues to attract audiences, creators and premium content.”
The growing importance of YouTube reflects broader shifts in consumer behavior, particularly among younger viewers who increasingly divide their screen time between traditional streaming services, creator-led content and social video platforms.
The Next Phase of the Streaming Wars
Omdia expects the next stage of market growth to be driven by several key trends:
- Continued consolidation among major streaming platforms
- Expansion of advertising-supported subscription tiers
- Increased content bundling strategies
- Greater emphasis on profitability and operational efficiency
- Intensifying competition for viewer attention across subscription and free ad-supported services
These developments suggest that the future of streaming will be defined less by subscriber acquisition at all costs and more by sustainable business models, audience retention and platform scale.
While consolidation may create stronger challengers, Omdia’s latest forecast indicates that Netflix remains firmly positioned at the center of the global streaming ecosystem, with a lead that competitors may struggle to close before the end of the decade.
