Gower Street Analytics (GSA) made an early forecast for global box office revenue in 2024, predicting $31.5 billion, down roughly 5% from 2023. GSA currently pegs 2023 at $33.4 billion. This marks the first post-pandemic drop in the London-based firm’s annual forecast. If this figure holds, there will be a 20% drop compared to the average of the last three pre-pandemic years, 2017-2019.
For 2024, the North American market is expected to be approximately $8 billion, down 11% compared to 2023. According to Gower’s forecasts, this represents a -30% increase compared to the 2017-2019 average and only a 7% increase compared to 2022.
International box office revenue excluding China is projected at around $15.6bn, 7% above 2023, supported by local productions. This is -21% ahead of the 2017-2019 average, but 12% ahead of 2022.
HOLLYWOOD STRIKE HAD AN IMPACT
This shift is thought to be largely due to work stoppages during the Hollywood screenwriter and actor strikes, which caused some products to be delayed until next year, rather than the health of the cinema. Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street, said: “Given that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the anticipated 5% year-on-year decrease in 2023 is not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability. In fact, as July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, we know that there is a robust audience demand for compelling theatrical releases.”
Speaking about 2025, Mitsinikos said: “Based on productions currently on our radar, we expect 2025 to be a very good year at the global box office and hopefully a positive trend-setter for the second half of this decade.”
Rob Mitchell, Director of Theatre Analysis at Gower Street, adds: “The impact of the recent writers’ and actors’ strikes on the release calendar, in terms of global-appeal Hollywood product, has been significant. That is the key driver of this slight regression in recovery momentum we’re seeing in 2024 that looks to postpone any chance of returning to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.”
OTHERS STAND OUT WHEN US PRODUCTS DECLINE
“The international market is a bit less impacted by the limited release calendar caused by the Hollywood strike, compared to domestic,” said Gower Street’s chief analyst Thomas Beranek who led the work on the 2024 projection. “Local and international titles have more space to shine in each market when the supply of attractive U.S.-product is shortened. This has been proven frequently since the pandemic disrupted both production and release cycles in 2020.”
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